Saturday, May 26, 2018

mathematics - Probability of Seeing a Car in 10 Minutes & 30 Minutes



On a deserted road, the probability of observing a car during a thirty-minute period is 95%.
What is the chance of observing a car in a ten-minute period?



Hint: To clarify the question we are saying the probability of seeing any other cars in 30 minutes is 95% or more clearly, and more usefully, the probability of not seeing any other cars is 5%.



Answer



The answer is:



100% - 5%^(1/3) (cube root of 5%), which is about 63%



Why?



Because the probability of not seeing a car in thirty minutes is equal to the probability of not seeing a car for ten minutes to the third power. That is, not seeing a car for ten minutes three times in a row is like not seeing a car for thirty minutes




Or, with a formula:



If $P_{not30}$ is the probability of not seeing a car for 30 minutes and $P_{not10}$ is the probability of not seeing a car for ten minutes, $P_{not30}$= $P_{not10}^ 3 \Rightarrow$ $P_{not10} = \sqrt[3]{P_{not30}}$



No comments:

Post a Comment

classical mechanics - Moment of a force about a given axis (Torque) - Scalar or vectorial?

I am studying Statics and saw that: The moment of a force about a given axis (or Torque) is defined by the equation: $M_X = (\vec r \times \...